Formula 1 heads into qualifying for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix with Mercedes looking like the team to beat, despite Max Verstappen taking the fastest time in final practice around the Baku City Circuit.
George Russell has produced the strongest overall performance across the three practice sessions. The Mercedes driver topped FP1 and FP2 before finishing only 0.099s behind Verstappen in FP3, despite making mistakes during his final qualifying simulations.
Verstappen took the FP3 headline with a 1m43.922s after benefiting from a significant slipstream, while Lewis Hamilton finished third ahead of championship leader Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc.
McLaren enters qualifying with more uncertainty. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have struggled to match Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari while the team works through a substantial upgrade package designed to improve its low-speed performance.
Baku’s long straights also make slipstreaming an important factor. Finding the right track position and avoiding traffic should play a major role in deciding pole position.
Here are our F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Qualifying Predictions based on practice performance and recent race form.
F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Qualifying Predictions: George Russell for Pole
Pole Position Prediction: George Russell
George Russell is our prediction for pole position after producing the strongest overall performance across practice in Baku.
Russell started the weekend by topping FP1 with a 1m45.387s before Mercedes demonstrated an even larger advantage during second practice. His 1m43.347s in FP2 put him around half a second ahead of Antonelli, while Verstappen finished more than eight tenths behind.
FP3 appeared closer, with Verstappen taking first place by 0.099s, but the final standings do not tell the complete story.
Verstappen benefited from a substantial slipstream on his fastest lap, while Russell failed to complete his strongest possible final run. The Mercedes driver locked his front tyres at Turn 1 before later running straight on at Turn 7, stopping the car without hitting the barrier.
Russell has therefore finished first, first and second across the three practice sessions. Mercedes also appears particularly well suited to Baku’s power-sensitive layout, giving Russell a strong opportunity to secure pole.
F1 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying Predictions: Verstappen to Take Second
Second Place Prediction: Max Verstappen
Verstappen is our prediction to join Russell on the front row after finishing FP3 with the fastest lap.
The Red Bull driver has remained close to the front throughout the weekend, finishing second in FP1, third in FP2 and first in FP3.
His final practice result provided encouragement for Red Bull after Mercedes controlled Thursday, although the slipstream on his quickest lap makes the RB22’s true advantage difficult to judge.
Verstappen also reported that his Red Bull was “jumping like a kangaroo” during FP3 and later ran into the Turn 15 escape road.
Despite those difficulties, his recent race form strengthens his case for another front-row challenge. Verstappen finished third at Monza before taking second at Madring, giving him consecutive podium finishes heading into Baku.
Mercedes appears to hold a slight advantage based on the complete practice picture, but Verstappen should remain close enough to challenge Russell for pole.
F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Qualifying Predictions: Antonelli Completes Top Three
Third Place Prediction: Kimi Antonelli
Kimi Antonelli completes our predicted top three after recovering from a difficult start to his Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend.
The championship leader briefly topped FP1 before his Mercedes stopped at Turn 7 with a suspected hydraulic problem. The issue cost Antonelli much of the session and prevented him from completing the later soft-tyre programme.
Mercedes repaired the W17 ahead of FP2, and Antonelli immediately returned to the front. He finished second behind Russell as Mercedes secured a comfortable one-two.
Antonelli remained competitive during FP3, although Hamilton’s late improvement pushed him down to fourth in the final standings.
Recent results also support another strong qualifying performance. Antonelli has won the previous two Grands Prix, producing an extraordinary recovery from 19th at Monza before taking his eighth victory of the season in Madrid.
Russell has looked more comfortable throughout the Baku weekend, but Antonelli has enough pace to challenge Verstappen and his Mercedes team-mate across the three qualifying sessions.
Hamilton and Leclerc Expected to Reach the Top 10 In Baku
Ferrari should have both cars inside the top 10 based on its performance throughout practice.
Hamilton finished fifth in FP2 before improving to third during final practice. His late FP3 effort put him ahead of Antonelli and Leclerc, leaving only Verstappen and Russell above him.
Leclerc has also remained consistently close to the front. He finished third in FP1, fourth in FP2 and fifth in FP3, keeping himself within the leading group across every session.
Ferrari’s recent weakness has been extracting its full potential during qualifying. Team principal Fred Vasseur has already identified Saturday performance as an area requiring improvement, although this week’s unusual schedule means qualifying takes place on Friday.
Both Hamilton and Leclerc have shown enough speed in Baku to reach Q3 and fight for places near the front.
McLaren Should Still Get Norris and Piastri Into Q3
McLaren’s position remains one of the biggest questions heading into qualifying.
The team arrived in Azerbaijan with a substantial upgrade package aimed at improving the MCL40 through slower corners. New sidepods, changes to the floor edge and a revised diffuser have all featured during practice.
Results have so far been mixed.
Norris finished 14th in FP1 without completing a representative soft-tyre lap before moving to sixth in FP2. His qualifying simulation was again compromised, leaving McLaren without a completely clear picture of its one-lap performance.
FP3 offered more evidence of where the team stands. Piastri finished seventh and Norris eighth, placing both McLarens behind Mercedes, Verstappen, Ferrari and Gasly.
That represents a significant change from Madrid, where Norris took pole and controlled the opening stint of the Spanish Grand Prix.
McLaren has still shown enough pace to put both cars into the final qualifying session. Norris and Piastri therefore feature among our expected top-10 drivers, even if a challenge for pole currently looks less likely.
Gasly Could Continue Alpine’s Strong Qualifying Form
Pierre Gasly is another driver expected to feature inside the top 10 after a promising practice performance.
The Alpine driver finished seventh in FP2 before taking sixth during final practice, beating both McLarens.
Gasly has already demonstrated Alpine’s one-lap potential this season by taking a surprise pole position at Monza. He eventually finished seventh in the Italian Grand Prix, while team-mate Franco Colapinto took ninth.
Alpine again looked competitive in FP3 at Baku, with Colapinto reaching 10th.
Gasly therefore looks like a strong candidate to reach Q3 and challenge some of the leading teams.
Hadjar in Contention After Red Bull Return
Isack Hadjar is also included in our predicted top 10 on his return to the Red Bull cockpit.
His weekend started with a suspected power unit issue during FP1, an unwanted problem after missing three consecutive races with a wrist injury.
Hadjar completed more useful running during FP2 before finishing ninth in final practice.
The Frenchman has already produced a run of seven consecutive top-six finishes during 2026 and remains eighth in the championship despite missing Zandvoort, Monza and Madrid.
His lack of recent race mileage adds another challenge, but the pace shown during FP3 suggests Hadjar has enough performance to fight for a Q3 position.
Colapinto Could Put Second Alpine Into Q3
Franco Colapinto completes our group of drivers expected to fill the top 10.
The Argentine finished 10th in final practice, joining Gasly inside the leading group and giving Alpine encouragement before qualifying.
Colapinto also enters the weekend following consecutive points finishes. He took ninth at Monza before improving to seventh in Madrid, continuing his stronger run of form during the second half of the season.
Getting both Alpine cars through to Q3 would represent another positive result for the team following its recent progress.
Esteban Ocon, Liam Lawson and the Williams drivers should also be involved in the battle for the final places, but Colapinto’s FP3 performance gives him our final top-10 selection.
F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Qualifying Predictions
Pole Position:
George Russell, Mercedes
Predicted Top Three:
George Russell, Mercedes
Max Verstappen, Red Bull
Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Expected to Fill Out the Top 10:
Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari
Lando Norris, McLaren
Oscar Piastri, McLaren
Pierre Gasly, Alpine
Isack Hadjar, Red Bull
Franco Colapinto, Alpine
Russell Remains Our Favourite for Azerbaijan GP Pole
Verstappen enters qualifying after setting the fastest FP3 time, but Russell’s performance across all three practice sessions makes the Mercedes driver our prediction for pole.
Russell topped both Thursday sessions and missed the FP3 benchmark by only 0.099s. His mistakes during the closing stages also suggest more lap time was available, while Verstappen received a major slipstream on his quickest effort.
Antonelli remains another serious contender after recovering strongly from his FP1 mechanical issue, while Hamilton and Leclerc have kept Ferrari within striking distance.
McLaren remains harder to assess. Norris and Piastri should have enough performance to reach Q3, but neither has demonstrated the same outright pace as Mercedes so far.
Gasly, Hadjar and Colapinto complete our expected top 10 based on their practice performance, although Racing Bulls, Audi and Williams remain threats for the final Q3 places.
With slipstreaming, traffic and Baku’s narrow walls adding further variables, qualifying should provide a close battle. Based on the evidence so far, Russell gets our pick for pole, with Verstappen and Antonelli completing the predicted top three.
