The energy in Mexico City is electric, the air is thin, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The 2025 Formula 1 season rolls into the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez for Round 20 of the year — and with just a handful of races remaining, the battle for both championships is on a knife edge.
After a dramatic qualifying session under the blazing Mexican sun, it’s Lando Norris who starts from pole position, with Charles Leclerc alongside him and Lewish Hamilton starting third. Each has something to fight for: Norris hunting his second career win, Leclerc desperate to turn Ferrari’s pace into consistent results, and Hamilton determined to secure his first full race podium with Ferrari.
With high temperatures, unpredictable tyre wear, and a 900-metre drag to Turn 1, Sunday’s race promises chaos, strategy, and potentially a championship-shifting result. Here’s your full Mexico GP 2025 race prediction, from the winner and podium to the rest of the top ten.
Setting the Scene
See how we done in our Mexico GP Qualifying Prediction
Saturday’s qualifying session gave us one of the tightest grids of the season. Lando Norris put together a near-perfect lap to grab pole with a time of 1:15.586, comfortably beating Charles Leclerc by just over a two tenths of a second. Lewis Hamilton qualified third, while Max Verstappen had to settle for fifth after a scrappy final run, with George Russell starting just ahead of him in foruth.
For Oscar Piastri, things didn’t go according to plan — the championship leader could only manage eighth (seventh after Sainz 5-place grid penalty), setting up a crucial fightback if he wants to hold onto his dwindling points advantage.
The top five drivers were separated by less than five tenths, proving just how close this field remains deep into 2025. But with McLaren on pole, Ferrari showing pace and Red Bull lurking, the race could take a very different shape once the lights go out.
Race Day Dynamics
Mexico’s unique conditions often flip the script. The track sits 2,200 metres above sea level, meaning thinner air and less aerodynamic downforce for everyone. The long run from pole to Turn 1 — nearly a kilometre — is one of the longest on the calendar, and it often decides the order before the first braking zone.
That means Norris’ start will be crucial. If he gets away cleanly and avoids the slipstream threat from Leclerc, Hamilton and even Verstappen, he’ll have a clear advantage. But if either Ferrari or Red Bull hooks up a better launch, we could see a three-wide charge into the first corner — and possibly contact.
Tyre strategy will also be decisive. High temperatures and thin air make cooling difficult, leading to quicker degradation. Expect a two-stop race, with most teams starting on the mediums before switching to hards mid-race.
Winner: Lando Norris (McLaren)
There’s an unmistakable sense that this could be Lando Norris’ weekend. The McLaren MCL39 has looked sharp all weekend, with excellent balance through the medium-speed corners and the kind of straight-line efficiency that suits Mexico’s long straights.
Starting from pole gives Norris the clean side of the grid and the best possible line into Turn 1. If he nails the getaway and holds position early, he has the pace to control the race from the front.
McLaren have also been strategically sharp in recent rounds — and with teammate Piastri starting further back, they’ll likely build their race plan entirely around Norris.
Prediction: Norris wins by around 6–8 seconds, securing a crucial victory for McLaren and reigniting his late-season surge.
P2 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Even when Verstappen starts off the front row, you can never count him out — especially not in Mexico. The Dutchman is a five-time winner at the circuit and has a deep understanding of its unique challenges.
While qualifying didn’t go his way, Verstappen’s long-run pace on the medium compound looked strong, and Red Bull’s race-day setup often shines in warmer conditions. Expect him to pick off Hamilton early and close down on Leclerc mid-race.
However, starting on the dirty side of the grid could cost him at the start, and overtaking Norris later on might be a stretch unless a Safety Car intervenes.
Prediction: Verstappen fights through to second, but can’t quite match Norris’ clean air advantage. Another strong result keeps his championship hopes alive heading into Brazil.
P3 – Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Ferrari have been building momentum in recent rounds, and Leclerc’s qualifying pace once again showed the SF-25’s strengths. The car is excellent on corner entry and braking stability — vital at Mexico’s twisty final sector.
However, tyre management could be the difference between a podium and another “what if” afternoon. Ferrari have struggled in hot races this season, and the thinner air will only add to the difficulty of cooling their tyres and brakes.
Expect Leclerc to fight hard early on, possibly challenging for the lead into Turn 1, but ultimately fall behind Verstappen in the second stint. Still, a podium would represent another positive step for Ferrari’s late-season form.
Predicted Top 10
Lando Norris (McLaren) – Converts pole into victory with clean, controlled drive.
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – Classic fightback performance, but just falls short.
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – Brilliant qualifying, solid podium despite tyre struggles.
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) – Strong start, but loses out on strategy.
George Russell (Mercedes) – Quiet but efficient, capitalises on consistency.
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – Damage limitation day; recovers solid points from P7.
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) – Puts together a strong performance bouncing back after an unfortunate US GP.
Yuki Tsunoda (Racing Bulls) – Another impressive midfield performance, picking up much needed points for Red Bull.
Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls) – Keeps up strong form, solid top-ten result.
Carlos Sainz (Williams) – Extracts the maximum once again breaking into the top 10 from P12.
See how this prediction lines up against our early Mexico GP Prediction
Bonus Predictions
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Safety Car: Very likely. Mexico’s long run to Turn 1 is chaos every year, and this grid is tightly bunched. Expect at least one intervention.
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Biggest Gainer: Max Verstappen – He thrives in recovery scenarios.
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Biggest Loser: Oscar Piastri – Loses out on more points to his title challengers.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix has all the ingredients for a thriller: high stakes, high altitude, and three world-class drivers on the front rows. Lando Norris has the machinery and momentum to finally convert pole into victory, but Max Verstappen’s relentless race pace will keep him honest all afternoon.
Charles Leclerc could make it three teams on the podium — a testament to how competitive this season has become.
Expect strategy gambles, tyre headaches, and a championship picture that tightens even further by the time the chequered flag falls in Mexico City.
Final Mexico GP Prediction:
1st Lando Norris
2nd Max Verstappen
3rd Charles Leclerc
