Why Mercedes are downplaying the chances of a repeat win in Las Vegas GP

by | Nov 18, 2025 | F1 News, F1 Race Week, F1 Teams, Mercedes

Mercedes returned to Las Vegas with a direct message. Last year’s win does not set the standard for this weekend. George Russell delivered a controlled victory on the Strip in 2024. The car worked. The conditions helped. The team executed.

This season brings a different tone. The leadership, the engineers and the drivers keep expectations tight. They want a strong result, but they refuse to talk about a repeat. They know the sport has changed since last year. They know their own car has changed. They know success last year does not guarantee anything now.

Why the Team Is Cautious

The Car Is Different

Toto Wolff set the baseline with a clear statement. He said,

“I have said let us keep exactly the same car we had last year, let us not change it, but unfortunately that is not the case anymore.”

The W16 carries new traits and a new balance. It does not respond to setup changes in the same way. The team has gained in some areas and lost in others. The stable behaviour that helped them last season in Las Vegas is no longer guaranteed.

Wolff added:

“So we have to be very analytical of what is the car we need for Las Vegas, what is the ambient temperature, and can we replicate those performances. But I doubt it.”

He removed any suggestion of a simple repeat. He wants data, not assumptions.

Conditions Will Shift

Last year’s race started late. The cold air helped tyre control. The smooth surface stayed predictable. Mercedes thrived under those conditions.

This season the race starts earlier. The temperature could sit higher. The surface may rubber in at a different rate. Tyre behaviour becomes more complex. A small shift in conditions could change the competitive order.

Wolff closed his view with a simple line.

“We need to go there open minded. It is a new weekend, and hopefully we are able to perform well.”

Insight From the Technical Team

No Direct Comparison

Deputy technical director Simone Resta echoed the same message. He said,

“I think it is difficult to have a proper expectation of performance because if you look at last year and this year, we won in all different races between last year and this year.”

Mercedes has seen highs and lows across the calendar. Many of those moments came in places they did not expect. Their form shifts quickly between tracks.

Resta added,

“It is difficult to draw a direct guess between how we were last year and how it is going to be this year.”

The team will not rely on last year’s reference. They will build their weekend from scratch.

Focus on Preparation

Resta gave a clear summary of the internal mindset.

“We are going into these races as motivated as ever. We are trying to prepare ourselves in the best way. The drivers are both positive and we will try to maximise our performance.”

The team wants execution more than predictions. They aim to build performance session by session. They want clean laps, stable balance and sharp strategy.

What This Means for George Russell

A New Challenge

Russell’s win in Las Vegas last year was one of his sharpest drives. This time he approaches the weekend with calm intent. He knows the car behaves differently. He knows conditions will not match last year. He knows Mercedes still works to close the gap to the front.

A Measured Mindset

Russell will keep his expectations controlled. He will look for a strong qualifying base. He will monitor long run stability. He will rely on execution rather than hope. A podium is realistic. A win needs perfect conditions and strong pace across the weekend.

What Fans Should Expect

A Fight, Not a Repeat

Mercedes does not want to sell a storyline around last year’s success. They want a clean, efficient weekend. Watch for signs of early pace in practice. Watch how the tyres behave. Look at how the car responds to the cold evening air. These factors will decide their ceiling.

A podium counts as a strong result. A win becomes a bonus. The team knows both outcomes are possible, but the realistic focus is consistency.

Final View

Mercedes enters Las Vegas with discipline. No big predictions. No talk of repeating last year. Only preparation, analysis and execution. Last year’s victory sits in the past. This weekend stands on its own.

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