The Red Bull driver academy is one of Formula 1’s most ruthless — and most successful — talent pipelines. From Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo to Max Verstappen, it’s built careers and ended others just as fast.
Heading into the 2026 season, the program faces another defining decision: who will keep the final Racing Bulls seat — Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson?
With Isack Hadjar tipped to join Red Bull Racing alongside Verstappen next year, and Arvid Lindblad expected to step up from Formula 2 into the Racing Bulls lineup, the Faenza-based team is likely to have only one seat remaining. That leaves Tsunoda and Lawson — two proven but very different drivers — in a straight fight for their F1 future.
Yuki Tsunoda: The Experienced Hand
Season snapshot
Tsunoda has been a part of the Red Bull setup since 2021, evolving from a raw, outspoken rookie into a composed, technically savvy driver who’s matured significantly within the Racing Bulls environment.
In 2025, he’s delivered a consistent run of points finishes, often outpacing more established midfield drivers. His one-lap pace has improved, and his racecraft — once a weak point — now looks refined. Tsunoda’s feedback has also been credited by the team as vital to their mid-season upgrade progress.
Why he deserves the seat
Tsunoda represents stability and experience. He’s entering his mid-20s and has spent years understanding how the Red Bull ecosystem operates. That knowledge makes him valuable not just as a driver, but as a reliable benchmark for developing talent like Lindblad.
He’s also matured dramatically — the radio outbursts that once defined him have faded, replaced by calm communication and leadership within the team. Racing Bulls’ engineers reportedly value his technical understanding and ability to extract the maximum from a difficult car.
If Red Bull wants at least one experienced head at Racing Bulls to help guide their 2026 transition to the new regulations, Tsunoda is the logical choice.
The case against him
The main argument against Tsunoda is upside. While he’s consistent, some insiders question whether he’s reached his performance ceiling. Red Bull’s driver philosophy has always leaned toward nurturing younger prospects — and with Lindblad coming in, they may prefer a pairing that reflects their “next generation” narrative.
In short: Tsunoda is proven — but in a system built on potential, proven can sometimes be a liability.
Liam Lawson: The Rising Challenger
Season snapshot
Lawson’s path back into the Red Bull fold hasn’t been straightforward. After making substitute appearances in 2023 and spending 2024 on the sidelines, he finally secured a full-time Racing Bulls seat in 2025 — and he’s made it count.
While not always as consistent as Tsunoda, Lawson has shown flashes of brilliance. He’s bagged strong points finishes, impressed in tricky conditions, and often pulled off aggressive overtakes when opportunities arise. His calm under pressure and intelligent race management have drawn comparisons to early-career Ricciardo.
Why he deserves the seat
Lawson’s biggest selling point is his growth trajectory. At 23, he’s at that perfect balance between youth and experience. The New Zealander is also a fan favourite — confident, articulate, and relentless on track.
He’s the kind of driver who can be molded further — something Red Bull’s program thrives on. Lawson’s adaptability also fits well with the 2026 reset, when the all-new chassis and power-unit regulations will demand drivers who can learn fast and think on their feet.
From a marketing perspective, he broadens Red Bull’s global reach too. Having a talented driver from New Zealand — a country with rich motorsport heritage but limited F1 representation — adds diversity to the Red Bull narrative.
The case against him
The main drawback for Lawson is consistency. While his highs have been impressive, his lows have often cost the team valuable points. He’s also had weekends where he’s struggled to match Tsunoda’s qualifying pace.
And crucially, Tsunoda’s long-term integration with Red Bull and Honda (who still have ties with Racing Bulls) gives him an edge politically. Lawson might be faster on his day, but Tsunoda is better connected within the structure.
The Bigger Picture: Racing Bulls’ 2026 Strategy
The 2026 season will mark the beginning of F1’s new hybrid era, and Racing Bulls — Red Bull’s sister team — is being reshaped to align even more closely with the senior outfit’s goals. With Arvid Lindblad likely to make his debut, the team may prefer to balance youthful energy with a steady, experienced figure.
That could tilt the scales toward Tsunoda, especially if Hadjar steps up to Red Bull and Lindblad needs mentorship during his rookie season.
However, there’s also an argument for doubling down on potential. Lawson and Lindblad would represent a future-focused driver pairing, giving Red Bull a long runway to develop the next wave of talent for the main team — much like how Verstappen and Sainz started at Toro Rosso in 2015.
In that sense, the decision might come down to Red Bull’s long-term philosophy: do they want instant results or long-term growth?
The Verdict
It’s a razor-thin decision. Both drivers have earned their place on the 2025 grid, and both bring compelling strengths to the table.
-
If Racing Bulls want experience, leadership, and proven reliability, Yuki Tsunoda should keep the seat. He’s embedded in the team’s DNA and offers stability during a period of major change.
-
If they want excitement, future potential, and marketing appeal, Liam Lawson is the choice. He’s younger, hungrier, and arguably fits better with Red Bull’s reputation for bold, aggressive talent bets.
For now, the 2025 season may ultimately decide their fate. If Tsunoda maintains his steady upward curve and keeps outscoring Lawson, the seat is his to lose. But if Lawson continues to build momentum and deliver standout weekends, Red Bull could be tempted to gamble on the future.
Either way, one thing is clear — the fight for the final Racing Bulls seat in 2026 isn’t just about two drivers. It’s a battle that represents what Red Bull’s entire philosophy stands for: relentless performance, risk-taking, and the constant search for the next superstar.
